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多哈(Doha)回合究竟是什么？
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So what exactly is the Doha round?
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多哈回合是以海湾国家卡塔尔首都的名字命名的。此轮谈判于2001年在多哈启动，涉及范围广泛，目的是在世界贸易组织(WTO) 153个成员国之间开放农业、工业产品和服务业贸易。本轮谈判还涵盖一些较小的问题，例如收紧国际贸易规则，以及让出口商更为容易地跨国获得商品。
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The talks, named after the capital of the Gulf state of Qatar in which it was launched in 2001, are broad-ranging negotiations to liberalise trade in agriculture, industrial goods and services among the World Trade Organisation’s 153 member countries. The talks also cover some smaller issues such as tightening up the rules under which international trade is conducted and making it easier for exporters to get goods across borders.
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此轮谈判为何破裂？
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Why did it break down?
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从根本上来说，多年来一直困扰本轮谈判的同一个问题是：一些新兴市场大国（特别是印度和中国）希望保留保护本国农民和制造商的权利——它们表示，本国的农民和制造商太脆弱，无力应对国际竞争。另一方面，美国——在某种程度上还有欧盟(EU)——要求这些国家用市场准入来换取自己减少对本国农民的支持。各方无法就一个可接受的协议达成一致。
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Fundamentally, the same problems that have bedevilled the talks for years: the desire of some big emerging market countries, particularly India and China, to retain the right to protect farmers and manufacturers they say are vulnerable to international competition. On the other side, the US – and to some extent the EU – have demanded access to those markets in return for cutting their own support for farmers. All sides could not agree an acceptable trade-off.
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那么，这只是一个富国对穷国的问题吗？
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So it’s just a rich versus poor thing?
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不。发展中国家在其中一些问题上也存在争议。巴西和乌拉圭等高产农产品出口国也希望进入印度等国的农业市场，但没有美国那样张扬。
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No. The developing world is split on some of these issues. Highly efficient agricultural exporters such as Brazil and Uruguay also want access to farm markets in countries such as India, but tend to be less vocal about it than the US.
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现在情况如何？
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What happens now?
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一些官员勇敢地表示，他们将在今年秋季重新回到谈判桌前。但随着美国大选迅速临近，在美国新总统入主白宫之前，似乎不太可能召开实质性的部长级会议。
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Some officials put on a brave face and said they would come back in the autumn. But with the US election fast approaching, it seems unlikely that a substantial meeting of ministers could take place before a new president enters the White House.
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成功达成协议很重要吗？
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Would a successful deal make much difference?
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不是非常重要，至少短期而言如此。关于多哈协议对全球经济的影响，多数预测为1000亿美元，约占0.1%。由于世界上最穷国家已获得进入富国市场的特别待遇，进口关税全面下调将会减少这一待遇的价值，实际上，这些国家可能会由于多哈协议而失败。
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Not much, at least immediately. Most estimates of the impact of a Doha agreement on the global economy are of the order of $100bn (€64bn, £50bn), or about 0.1 per cent. And because the very poorest countries in the world already have special access to the markets of the rich world, the value of which would be reduced by a general cut in import tariffs, they might actually lose out as a result of a deal.
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为何作用如此之小？
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Why so little effect?
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世界贸易组织谈判涉及的是“约束税率”（bound rates，各国可以提高进口关税或农业补贴的法定上限），而非各国目前使用的“实际税率”(applied rates)。两者的差距被称为“估值”(water)。由于约束税率通常远远低于实际税率，因此，世界贸易组织协议经常“降低估值”，而非立竿见影的降低实际关税和补贴。例如，针对那些被视为扭曲国际贸易的农业补贴，美国设定了1440亿美元的上限。但由于这些补贴和价格相关，而农产品市场最近相当繁荣，美国目前仅向农民支付了70亿美元至90亿美元补贴。
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WTO negotiations cover the “bound rates” – the legal maximum to which countries can raise their import tariffs or farm subsidies – rather than the “applied rates” they are actually using at present. The gap between the two is known as “water”. Since applied rates are often a long way below bound rates, WTO agreements often “cut water” rather than immediately reducing real-world tariffs and subsidies. The US, for example, is offering a $14.4bn ceiling on those farm subsidies deemed to distort international trade. But because those payments are linked to prices and commodity markets have boomed recently, the US is currently paying out only $7bn-$9bn to farmers.
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那么为何还要费劲签署协议？
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So why bother signing it?
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一个好的理由是，把它作为一份保单。就关税达成新的“约束税率”上限，会防范这些关税突然上调，进而减小全球可能陷入某种以牙还牙的保护主义的风险——上世纪30年代就出现过这种情况。巴黎政治学院(Sciences-Politiques)经济学教授帕特里克•麦瑟林(Patrick Messerlin)表示，多哈回合谈判应被认为是一个“约束回合”(binding round)。他表示，目前，印度、墨西哥和巴西等新兴大国可能会在不违背世贸组织规定的情况下，将农产品和工业产品关税提高三倍多。
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One good reason is as an insurance policy. Agreeing new “bound rate” ceilings for tariffs stops them being raised suddenly, thus reducing the risk that the world could slide back into the kind of tit-for-tat protectionism that it saw in the 1930s. Patrick Messerlin, an economics professor at Sciences-Politiques, the Paris-based university and research institute, says that Doha should be thought of as the “binding round”. At the moment, he says, big emerging economies such as India, Mexico and Brazil could more than triple their tariffs on farm products and industrial goods at any time without breaking WTO rules.
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如果不能达成协议，世贸组织本身会受影响吗？
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Will the WTO itself suffer without a deal?
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短期而言，不会。从中期来看，可能会。世界贸易组织不只是就自由贸易协议进行谈判。它还有一个争端解决机制，以裁定各国是否违背了现有规定。例如，它曾迫使欧盟改革其复杂且成本高昂的蔗糖保护体制，并强迫美国国会撤销企业所得税规定。如果各国政府不能在世界贸易组织的框架下通过谈判达成贸易协议，它们可能更不愿遵守现有的规定。
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Immediately, no. In the medium term, possibly yes. The WTO does more than just negotiate liberalisation deals. It also runs a dispute settlement system which adjudicates whether countries are breaking existing rules. This has, for example, forced reform of the EU’s complex and expensive sugar support regime and compelled the US Congress to repeal rules on corporation tax. If governments cannot agree trade pacts through negotiation under the WTO, they may be more reluctant to abide by the rules already in place.
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译者/梁艳裳
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